Yuval Noah Hariri & Jared Diamond


17:54 - Ronaldo Lemos

What worries me is that in Brazil, we have seen the resurgence of smallpox and the anti-vaccine mouvements. What I am worried is about these narratives and how people spin them, but let me move to another subject which is automation and the end of jobs.

You talk a lot about useless jobs. In Homo Deus you talk about the emergence of the useless class and you also mention the very well-known study by Osborne and Frey from Oxford that 47% of jobs risk being automated in the next few years. So basically these are jobs that machines will do; probably humans will be staying out of the picture. I want to play devils advocate because right now we don’t really see it happening.

18:50 - Ronaldo Lemos

If you look at the United States which has one of the highest levels of automation, unemployment rate is 3.7% now whereas Brazil that ranks really now by the index of Automation readiness by the Economist has a 12% unemployment rate right now. So is it really happening or is it going to happen in the future? Because what I am afraid is that we do not see any signs that automation is actually replacing human work, and actually these most automated countries, the cost of labour is going up. How do you feel about that?

19:40 - Yuval Noah Hariri

Well of course, nobody knows the timetable but the key elements to consider is first of all the AI Revolution is 4 or 5 years old. It takes time. The distance from the laboratory where the breakthrough are being made until it impacts the factory or the office, it takes time. It will not happen in one year. So we will see it unfolding so it will be a cascade of ever bigger disruptions, because it is now nowhere near its full potential